Everyone, including even some Democrats, agrees that one of Trump’s most prominent strengths for the 2020 election is what he has done for the economy or how stable it currently is. Even if they can’t admit that our good fortune is due to Trump’s actions, they can agree that right now it’s looking really great.
Naturally, this invokes the idea that if the economy would begin to falter and fail, as so many Democrats would have you believe is about to happen, then the chances of Trump winning a second term would also fail.
After all, he is a businessman first and foremost, and as such his success is always dependent on economic factors, right?
Wrong. At least according to one very reliable source.
Oxford Economics, a forecasting, and quantitative analysis firm says that unless the economy and stock market completely tanks within the next year, it is likely Trump will remain our president and Commander-in-Chief.
But they aren’t the only ones suggesting a similar outcome in 2020. Both Moody’s Analytics and Ray Fair of Yale predict that Trump will be re-elected. However, they maintain that this will only be the outcome if the economy stays roughly where it is now.
Moody’s Analytics claims in three separate analyses that he will win with between 289 and 332 electoral votes, as long as the economy holds. Fair, similarly, says that Trump will defeat the Democrats with 4 percent in the popular vote.
But even then, both agree that if there is a recession, Trump’s loss would not be all that great. For Moody’s Analytics, they say he would lose but not by a whole lot.
However, for Oxford Economics, the odds of a Trump win are even higher.
As Bloomberg reports, “Analysts at the firm see a 5-point win for Trump in the popular vote, even in the case of a recession, thanks to low unemployment, weak inflation, and relatively stable income gains.”
And according to Oxford, Trump will only lose if the recession or economic failure is severe. Bloomberg says a sharp economic drop such as this would require “rising tariffs, lower corporate profits, and a stock market downturn.”
In addition, unemployment would have to rise from a near half-decade low of 3.6 percent to almost double that at 6.4 percent. Incomes would also have to fall, and inflation would have to next to nothing. But even then, the margin of loss is said to be very small, according to Oxford.
Now before you start to say ‘Yeah, but this is just one report.” Keep in mind that Oxford’s “model accurately predicted the popular vote in 16 of the last 18 elections, going back to 1948. They missed Richard Nixon winning in 1968 and Jimmy Carter in 1976,” accruing to Bloomberg.
Therefore, the chances of them being utterly wrong about this are quite slim, indeed. And it sure doesn’t seem like the economy is going to change that much in such a short amount of time. And “a Bloomberg Economics model sees the chances of an election-year recession at just 27%.”
However, we do have to remember that other factors besides the economy will obviously come into the race. And Oxford notes this as well.
A report from Oxford economists James Watson and Gregory Daco say, “We stress that non-economic factors are likely to play an outsize role this election, including policy and political developments (like the impeachment inquiry) as well as factors like race, gender, and ‘likability.”
But even when we look at these other factors, it still looks like Trump has an excellent chance of winning. New surveys show that in swing states he not only has competitive polling numbers against former VP Joe Biden but that he is also doing well against more progressive candidates like Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Senator Bernie Sanders from Vermont.
Of course, some reports show that Trump will dismally lose, suggesting that he has no chance at all. But these are the same media outlets and critics that said there was no way he could win against Hillary Clinton or anyone else in the first place.
And we see where that thought got them. Let’s just say, if this information from Oxford is even remotely close to accurate, the Democrats are going to have another sad four years ahead of them.