Oxford Predicts Trump to Win Even if There’s a Recession

Everyone, including even some Democrats, agrees that one of Trump’s most prominent strengths for the 2020 election is what he has done for the economy or how stable it currently is. Even if they can’t admit that our good fortune is due to Trump’s actions, they can agree that right now it’s looking really great.

Naturally, this invokes the idea that if the economy would begin to falter and fail, as so many Democrats would have you believe is about to happen, then the chances of Trump winning a second term would also fail.

After all, he is a businessman first and foremost, and as such his success is always dependent on economic factors, right?

Wrong. At least according to one very reliable source.

Oxford Economics, a forecasting, and quantitative analysis firm says that unless the economy and stock market completely tanks within the next year, it is likely Trump will remain our president and Commander-in-Chief.

But they aren’t the only ones suggesting a similar outcome in 2020. Both Moody’s Analytics and Ray Fair of Yale predict that Trump will be re-elected. However, they maintain that this will only be the outcome if the economy stays roughly where it is now.

Moody’s Analytics claims in three separate analyses that he will win with between 289 and 332 electoral votes, as long as the economy holds. Fair, similarly, says that Trump will defeat the Democrats with 4 percent in the popular vote.

But even then, both agree that if there is a recession, Trump’s loss would not be all that great. For Moody’s Analytics, they say he would lose but not by a whole lot.

However, for Oxford Economics, the odds of a Trump win are even higher.

As Bloomberg reports, “Analysts at the firm see a 5-point win for Trump in the popular vote, even in the case of a recession, thanks to low unemployment, weak inflation, and relatively stable income gains.”

And according to Oxford, Trump will only lose if the recession or economic failure is severe. Bloomberg says a sharp economic drop such as this would require “rising tariffs, lower corporate profits, and a stock market downturn.”

In addition, unemployment would have to rise from a near half-decade low of 3.6 percent to almost double that at 6.4 percent. Incomes would also have to fall, and inflation would have to next to nothing. But even then, the margin of loss is said to be very small, according to Oxford.

Now before you start to say ‘Yeah, but this is just one report.” Keep in mind that Oxford’s “model accurately predicted the popular vote in 16 of the last 18 elections, going back to 1948. They missed Richard Nixon winning in 1968 and Jimmy Carter in 1976,” accruing to Bloomberg.

Therefore, the chances of them being utterly wrong about this are quite slim, indeed. And it sure doesn’t seem like the economy is going to change that much in such a short amount of time. And “a Bloomberg Economics model sees the chances of an election-year recession at just 27%.”

However, we do have to remember that other factors besides the economy will obviously come into the race. And Oxford notes this as well.

A report from Oxford economists James Watson and Gregory Daco say, “We stress that non-economic factors are likely to play an outsize role this election, including policy and political developments (like the impeachment inquiry) as well as factors like race, gender, and ‘likability.”

But even when we look at these other factors, it still looks like Trump has an excellent chance of winning. New surveys show that in swing states he not only has competitive polling numbers against former VP Joe Biden but that he is also doing well against more progressive candidates like Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Senator Bernie Sanders from Vermont.

Of course, some reports show that Trump will dismally lose, suggesting that he has no chance at all. But these are the same media outlets and critics that said there was no way he could win against Hillary Clinton or anyone else in the first place.

And we see where that thought got them. Let’s just say, if this information from Oxford is even remotely close to accurate, the Democrats are going to have another sad four years ahead of them.

32 Comments

  1. I would still vote for Trump. If he had not won we would be
    in a major depression right now. He is the only reason we have
    two pennies to rub together. We would not even have a country is
    Clinton had been elected. She would have already sold us to the
    highest bidder so her bank account would be healthier. I am amazed
    the Left supporters are so dumb and ignorant after hearing what their
    bimbo candidates are advocating for their future. I guess the LEFT
    does not like to eat.

    • Historic President Trump is the GREATEST PRESIDENT IN MY LIFE TIME, EVEN WITH ALL THE FALSE AND FAKE ACCUSATIONS OF RUSSIAN COLLUSION AND THE COMMUNIST IMPEACHMENT INQUIRY THAT THE RADICAL SOCIALIST DEMORATS HAVE BEEN DOING FOR 3 YEARS. President Trump has achieved and accomplish and continues to be successful for America and the American. Thanks to President Trump, America is now the Richest Country in the World…while the Radical Demorats have done nothing for America or the American people, ONLY WASTE THE TAXPAYERS MONEY ON A FAKE, FRAUD IMPEACHMENT INQUIRY.
      The DemoRATS MUST ALL BE DESTROYED.

  2. I too believe Trump will win both the Electoral and Popular vote and I would go so far as to say he will win by about 6% of the popular vote (higher if it was not for the Dem cheating and illegal votes) Even a great many Dems cannot stomach the morons they have running (which is why they are desperately looking for others like Bloomberg to enter the race) and they also like having MONEY in their pockets – especially the socialist ones! They may tell their friends oh yea I am and did vote Dem, but like when they voted for gay marriage in Ca. or Sanctuary city in Az. once they are safely behind the curtain of the voting booth they will vote Trump!
    Even most Dems know a good thing when they see it. Don’t be afraid of the bullies in your party- Dems do what is in your own best interest. Vote Trump!

    Historic economic growth in less than 3 yrs, historic low unemployment across the board -even for the poor and uneducated, highest wage increases in over a decade, low to no inflation, tariffs that are finally making other countries treat us fairly instead of trade deals that are little more the Am. taxpayer-funded redistribution of wealth to other nations!
    Oh and look at what you don’t see- Terrorists killing innocent people every couple of months- no grandmas in bread factories getting their heads cut off by a guy shouting Allah Akbar (then Obama calling it workplace violence) no knifings, driving trucks into crowds, bombs going off every couple months as we had under Obama- Why? Because Trump decimated the JV Team of ISIS!
    How about no Race Riots in the Streets? with Obama egging them on “Travon could have been my son…” The Cops acted Stupidly… and on and on…constantly pitting Americans against each other based on skin tone- Dems are still doing it. Race Relations tanked during the Obama years – my millennial daughters grew up with friends of every color without any issue, now the color is all kids are taught to see- and to hate and demonize each other for it. Thanks Left!
    Trump is appointing hundreds of judges who believe in the laws and constitution and do not think it is their job to legislate from the BENCH!
    NO more Caravans of Illegals every few months and He is Building the Wall even with the Dems doing everything they can to stop him and have open borders so they can give Illegals free healthcare, free education, freebies for votes while over a million Am. Citizen is living homeless on the streets and the Dems solution is to be compassionate enough to pass laws called quality of life (what an insult) to allow them to stay on the streets unhindered by the police…compassion? Really? but then they vote against building shelters NIMBY
    N. Korea under Obama launched a missile on average every 29 days during his admin. That has all but stopped- yes work still to do, but Trump has gotten further than any president in 70+ yrs!
    We could go on and on!!!

    Think of all that is going Great in this country right now and all the BAD things that have STOPED- the things you are now forgetting about as we now seem to have very short attention spans and the MSM only wants you to focus on Trump is a bad guy who stole the election and we must punish him for Hillary, Bidens, and even Obamas sins!

    Do yourselves a Favor Dems and Vote Trump to keep prosperity and peace going!

    • Recessions are not often caused by presidents and occur fairly often in any economy. It is fairly common for a recession to occur after a president takes office through no fault of theirs. Economies don’t, as a general rule, follow lockstep with elections or presidential terms.

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